* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 10/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 19 19 21 23 25 25 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 48 54 56 59 45 18 21 20 12 26 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 5 6 0 4 3 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 25 19 18 13 9 8 15 45 40 332 297 301 309 SST (C) 22.4 22.7 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.9 26.0 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 89 91 93 97 99 107 117 132 134 131 127 123 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 80 82 85 87 96 106 119 119 117 114 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -53.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 48 52 48 46 46 37 35 33 33 33 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 16 15 14 13 12 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 79 79 62 58 89 96 65 41 22 26 -13 -47 -60 200 MB DIV -24 -45 -27 -21 -16 -40 -19 -10 -13 -26 -2 -14 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -11 -3 1 -3 -1 0 0 0 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 1589 1723 1859 2003 1948 1917 1993 2175 2387 2447 2440 2260 2067 LAT (DEG N) 39.1 38.7 38.3 37.6 36.9 34.8 31.9 29.0 26.7 24.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.6 29.1 30.6 32.1 33.6 36.6 40.0 42.5 43.3 42.5 40.8 38.9 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 15 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 13 17 13 10 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 9. 11. 9. 2. -7. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -15. -19. -20. -21. -24. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 10/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.1/ -2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 10/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED