* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 55 55 56 58 61 65 67 73 69 64 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 55 55 56 58 61 65 67 73 69 64 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 58 58 59 63 68 72 71 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 28 31 29 23 9 14 14 26 29 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -2 -4 6 8 9 9 2 SHEAR DIR 354 351 348 351 356 355 333 313 242 257 249 244 248 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 137 136 134 134 139 141 143 140 135 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 124 120 118 114 115 120 122 124 121 117 108 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 42 43 45 42 39 47 46 44 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 11 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -72 -68 -66 -64 -56 -59 -58 -26 -25 18 -13 2 200 MB DIV -20 -14 -12 -10 12 -1 11 -2 50 56 78 5 20 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -11 -11 -5 -4 -3 0 -4 -1 -16 -2 -23 LAND (KM) 1229 1133 1044 998 957 983 1077 1219 1410 1619 1743 1675 1593 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.8 26.7 27.7 28.8 29.8 30.7 31.7 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.2 58.4 59.2 60.0 60.6 60.4 59.5 57.9 55.9 53.6 51.1 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 7 6 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 26 28 30 25 19 17 16 15 11 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 5. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 18. 14. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)