* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 56 56 57 59 60 64 65 66 64 60 V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 56 56 57 59 60 64 65 66 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 56 57 57 59 63 68 71 70 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 29 28 23 18 13 14 21 27 29 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 2 0 5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 338 345 347 356 358 353 330 295 275 266 248 247 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 137 136 135 134 135 138 139 141 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 123 121 119 115 115 116 119 120 122 120 118 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 38 37 41 40 43 43 43 48 51 50 46 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 12 14 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -62 -61 -61 -59 -52 -46 -32 1 22 34 35 16 200 MB DIV -32 -29 -21 -2 -5 -9 -23 -4 31 36 -3 -8 10 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -7 -5 -5 -3 0 1 1 1 -5 -9 -16 LAND (KM) 1136 1039 948 902 861 858 929 1025 1164 1316 1497 1676 1833 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.5 29.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.6 58.7 59.5 60.3 60.9 60.9 60.5 59.5 58.0 56.1 54.3 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 9 8 5 3 4 5 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 30 30 31 31 27 22 20 17 19 20 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -1. 0. 2. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)