* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/04/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 53 55 58 58 60 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 53 55 58 58 60 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 55 58 60 61 60 56 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 28 26 22 19 21 31 39 33 38 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -8 -5 -3 1 6 2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 333 344 352 351 346 317 294 261 251 238 248 241 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 137 136 134 131 134 137 140 141 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 123 121 119 115 112 115 120 123 123 120 115 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 36 38 39 41 40 43 48 53 54 50 48 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 12 9 11 12 12 16 17 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -62 -58 -56 -56 -40 -24 -3 12 52 64 65 68 200 MB DIV -31 -14 -4 -2 -17 5 32 43 72 45 -14 11 18 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -4 -6 -3 0 3 3 4 -5 -12 -36 -20 LAND (KM) 1015 937 864 835 813 847 919 1026 1173 1366 1602 1795 1768 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.3 25.0 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.8 59.8 60.5 61.2 61.7 62.0 61.4 60.0 57.9 55.5 53.6 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 6 9 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 31 32 28 20 18 17 16 17 14 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)