* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 54 59 58 62 62 60 58 52 45 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 54 59 58 62 62 60 58 52 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 56 58 61 62 60 56 50 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 23 17 16 19 32 39 41 49 62 63 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -3 1 2 1 5 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 343 353 355 337 333 287 246 240 247 243 248 247 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 139 136 136 134 131 135 140 141 143 140 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 123 118 118 118 113 117 124 124 125 123 114 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 38 41 40 40 44 48 49 50 51 40 37 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 13 12 11 14 12 17 20 21 25 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -59 -61 -60 -53 -21 1 37 66 87 105 114 123 200 MB DIV -1 2 -8 -12 1 34 42 74 48 5 0 6 23 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -4 -2 0 2 7 5 -3 -18 0 -18 -15 LAND (KM) 934 842 762 750 740 841 990 1101 1224 1424 1669 1685 1560 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.2 25.3 27.0 27.7 27.7 28.4 30.1 31.5 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.1 61.3 61.8 62.3 62.4 63.1 62.0 59.4 57.1 55.5 52.9 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 8 5 5 7 6 9 11 11 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 32 36 35 23 19 21 17 17 14 4 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 3. 7. 8. 6. 3. -3. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)