* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 56 58 59 62 64 66 63 61 58 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 56 58 59 62 64 66 63 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 56 57 60 62 63 61 59 55 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 19 16 14 20 30 34 28 34 38 44 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -6 -4 -5 -5 -1 6 8 7 18 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 356 356 346 327 310 275 256 242 237 238 241 238 219 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 26.4 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 134 134 132 134 140 142 142 138 121 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 119 116 116 113 117 123 126 126 122 108 91 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.1 -53.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 43 43 48 50 56 54 49 51 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 13 12 13 14 13 17 20 23 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -57 -53 -52 -49 -27 0 12 58 85 107 140 134 200 MB DIV -12 -24 -25 4 2 0 56 47 53 25 41 71 28 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 0 1 6 6 5 -9 -1 32 50 26 LAND (KM) 879 839 804 814 827 929 1055 1250 1488 1762 1650 1423 1202 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.9 26.0 27.0 28.1 29.0 30.2 31.9 34.4 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.5 61.2 61.6 61.9 62.0 61.4 59.6 56.9 54.2 51.5 48.4 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 8 11 13 14 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 36 36 33 22 20 17 16 13 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 7. 10. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 8. 6. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/04/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)