* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 53 57 59 62 62 61 55 53 49 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 53 57 59 62 62 61 55 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 56 57 60 62 62 59 54 48 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 16 13 18 18 30 37 41 50 53 55 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -2 -4 -4 -1 5 8 9 12 9 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 353 343 316 285 250 239 237 236 246 238 214 192 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.0 25.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 133 135 139 141 144 139 126 114 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 116 116 114 116 121 124 128 124 111 99 86 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 5 4 4 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 41 42 44 50 51 47 43 38 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 15 15 20 23 25 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -58 -60 -49 -40 -19 3 46 97 130 151 169 171 200 MB DIV -21 -19 4 8 2 20 37 49 27 33 28 34 42 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 1 -4 -4 -10 24 31 -3 0 LAND (KM) 891 887 884 913 944 1069 1232 1440 1703 1692 1600 1420 1159 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.4 25.8 26.9 27.9 29.0 30.2 31.5 32.8 35.1 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 60.5 60.9 61.1 61.3 60.9 59.6 57.7 55.1 51.9 48.2 46.0 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 9 11 14 16 15 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 34 30 26 20 18 15 13 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 10. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 0. -2. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)