* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 10/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 57 65 67 62 57 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 57 65 67 62 57 54 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 44 51 55 57 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 7 10 10 5 5 5 7 8 21 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 -8 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 65 64 92 43 45 75 88 112 184 192 154 130 121 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 145 145 145 146 146 144 139 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -51.8 -52.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 71 72 72 74 70 67 62 58 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 10 9 8 12 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 34 32 31 41 48 55 57 67 87 109 128 200 MB DIV 64 72 73 84 88 49 80 115 133 125 121 80 95 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -7 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1210 1261 1312 1334 1363 1441 1527 1595 1629 1692 1776 1855 1886 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.8 114.5 115.4 116.3 118.0 119.8 121.4 122.7 123.9 125.0 125.8 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 5 9 12 8 7 9 8 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 3. 1. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 32. 40. 42. 37. 32. 29. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##