* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 10/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 55 64 61 59 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 55 64 61 59 55 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 37 44 50 55 58 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 10 10 11 5 6 3 3 8 19 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -5 -5 -2 -6 -5 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 64 90 41 44 59 47 76 120 202 148 133 94 87 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 145 147 146 142 140 137 140 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 72 73 75 75 68 68 61 60 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 10 9 8 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 32 30 36 48 49 66 59 81 91 95 93 200 MB DIV 72 73 84 91 64 63 89 127 151 131 127 94 82 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 0 6 8 LAND (KM) 1265 1314 1335 1358 1386 1455 1524 1566 1612 1693 1777 1789 1640 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.0 13.6 13.1 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.6 115.3 116.1 116.9 118.5 120.2 121.5 122.7 123.7 124.4 124.0 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 8 6 5 5 2 5 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 8 11 13 6 8 10 8 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 3. 2. 0. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 30. 39. 36. 34. 30. 32. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##