* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 51 55 55 56 56 56 56 50 43 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 51 55 55 56 56 56 56 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 49 49 50 52 52 50 46 40 35 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 19 15 34 36 40 44 61 41 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 0 1 7 7 10 20 6 2 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 330 314 271 246 243 224 231 212 233 216 170 179 216 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.4 25.6 22.5 19.4 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 134 134 136 139 142 143 132 114 93 80 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 116 118 122 127 129 119 103 84 73 69 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 38 39 40 47 43 45 47 49 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 18 20 23 28 33 35 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -54 -51 -47 -26 -8 30 78 134 187 223 161 98 200 MB DIV -4 20 15 22 36 51 40 54 21 75 49 49 35 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 2 2 -12 -8 -24 5 21 -32 -11 1 LAND (KM) 875 913 953 1033 1113 1304 1526 1726 1573 1294 970 921 1040 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.5 29.5 30.8 32.7 35.9 40.3 43.6 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 61.4 61.5 61.2 60.8 59.3 57.0 53.8 50.3 47.3 44.9 42.2 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 14 16 19 22 22 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 23 21 18 16 15 10 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -18. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 12. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)