* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 10/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 43 47 49 48 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 43 47 49 48 50 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 16 14 15 15 14 15 12 14 12 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 2 0 -1 0 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 53 36 36 30 24 27 356 21 10 21 358 346 292 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 145 146 147 147 146 144 140 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.0 -52.8 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 81 82 82 78 75 74 73 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -5 -2 -3 0 11 23 31 33 47 70 93 117 200 MB DIV 24 22 36 42 38 82 105 138 114 103 123 122 103 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -8 -9 -8 -11 -8 -5 -5 -9 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 861 884 909 913 928 939 953 931 919 882 805 692 577 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.2 105.0 105.9 106.8 108.4 109.9 111.0 111.7 112.0 112.0 111.8 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 10 8 9 10 9 8 5 6 8 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 18. 22. 24. 23. 25. 27. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 10/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 10/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##