* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 59 58 60 59 57 55 56 50 47 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 59 58 60 59 57 55 56 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 60 59 54 48 42 37 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 20 25 36 41 46 52 48 19 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 1 6 8 5 12 8 1 -3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 312 265 259 243 231 234 227 224 211 196 181 227 214 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.8 25.9 23.4 21.4 18.2 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 135 136 139 142 144 138 116 97 87 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 117 118 121 126 131 126 104 86 78 72 69 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 39 39 49 49 49 47 46 45 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 15 20 23 29 31 33 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -50 -45 -28 -12 -2 37 91 147 158 144 84 37 200 MB DIV 18 4 9 32 54 36 70 59 30 47 61 42 68 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 0 -6 -16 -34 -7 6 -15 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 916 961 1007 1095 1184 1384 1698 1607 1302 1060 931 1043 1332 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 32.3 35.6 38.9 41.8 44.6 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.2 61.0 60.4 59.8 58.2 54.8 51.3 48.1 45.6 43.6 40.0 35.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 8 9 12 17 20 20 18 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 21 20 15 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 13. 15. 16. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. 1. -5. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/05/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)