* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 10/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 50 56 60 62 64 63 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 50 56 60 62 64 63 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 14 15 17 22 23 23 27 30 27 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 0 -4 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 55 39 28 31 34 53 49 39 38 44 44 72 96 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 140 140 139 140 142 143 145 148 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 76 78 77 74 73 65 65 63 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 11 13 14 18 22 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 29 35 43 51 49 51 55 64 74 107 109 200 MB DIV 100 95 82 66 74 91 124 156 135 127 159 143 200 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 3 5 6 5 8 LAND (KM) 1351 1411 1477 1533 1593 1663 1673 1623 1549 1445 1280 1062 753 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 10.9 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.7 116.6 117.4 118.2 119.5 120.3 120.2 119.5 118.2 116.2 113.4 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 8 8 7 5 3 3 5 9 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 8 7 2 1 3 9 13 12 8 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 19. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 37. 39. 38. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 10/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##