* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 10/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 39 44 45 47 49 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 39 44 45 47 49 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 15 18 12 14 19 16 17 6 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 1 4 0 1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 36 32 24 22 16 14 14 19 23 340 260 271 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 145 145 146 147 147 143 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 80 83 79 78 75 74 68 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 12 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 -2 0 4 17 29 29 31 60 85 119 123 200 MB DIV 24 35 41 37 58 100 111 125 112 103 107 97 65 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -9 -11 -11 -11 -7 -5 -9 -6 -4 7 LAND (KM) 863 886 900 913 935 941 935 923 888 832 698 562 475 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.4 15.6 16.9 18.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.7 106.6 107.5 109.0 110.2 111.0 111.5 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 8 8 9 11 10 8 6 8 16 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 4. 7. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 14. 19. 20. 22. 24. 27. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 10/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 10/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##