* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 60 59 56 57 56 52 44 43 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 58 60 59 56 57 56 52 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 57 58 58 56 53 48 42 38 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 26 32 26 41 43 49 51 19 3 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 6 4 13 7 12 11 0 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 261 243 224 238 230 228 231 205 188 176 138 212 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.1 24.8 22.5 20.4 18.2 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 139 141 142 142 129 107 91 81 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 119 122 124 126 129 118 96 81 72 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -53.4 -54.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 41 46 47 44 48 44 42 40 39 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 16 16 20 20 21 29 33 30 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -39 -24 -13 -11 19 69 118 173 185 176 124 93 200 MB DIV 5 15 33 60 41 19 39 41 38 32 41 24 48 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 0 -2 -1 -22 0 -21 2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 983 1051 1118 1222 1328 1539 1743 1518 1239 1032 872 896 1044 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.3 30.8 33.3 36.8 40.1 42.8 44.5 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 60.8 60.5 59.6 58.7 56.5 53.3 49.6 46.2 44.1 43.5 42.0 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 10 10 13 18 21 20 16 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 19 15 16 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -19. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 12. 16. 13. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)