* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102011 10/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 56 59 60 64 62 64 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 56 59 60 64 62 64 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 44 44 45 48 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 17 16 16 18 15 25 31 17 16 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -1 2 4 1 -4 -2 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 32 38 39 33 38 22 25 20 43 22 28 180 4 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 143 143 144 146 147 149 147 146 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -52.0 -53.0 -51.5 -52.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 81 82 80 77 74 77 70 68 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 18 17 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 5 11 13 25 33 35 50 66 71 79 81 200 MB DIV 39 33 40 54 83 120 123 124 147 159 161 186 128 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -8 -8 -8 -3 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -15 LAND (KM) 914 928 943 956 973 996 983 944 869 745 591 422 291 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.3 108.0 109.3 110.1 110.6 110.6 109.9 108.8 107.6 106.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 10 8 8 7 9 11 31 11 6 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 15. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 34. 32. 34. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##