* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 10/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 50 50 47 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 50 50 47 46 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 38 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 16 20 27 23 21 27 40 34 37 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -1 -6 0 0 0 -5 3 0 9 SHEAR DIR 44 32 54 56 61 62 65 53 67 76 79 72 41 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 140 139 140 141 142 144 146 148 152 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.4 -53.2 -51.7 -52.7 -51.4 -52.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 71 76 77 79 79 75 67 64 60 62 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 31 35 39 46 55 57 75 71 69 37 55 200 MB DIV 98 80 74 63 76 125 148 167 158 106 134 136 155 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 1 0 8 11 18 23 29 LAND (KM) 1413 1474 1538 1593 1650 1678 1639 1582 1514 1396 1239 1096 827 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.2 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.1 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.6 117.4 118.2 119.0 120.0 120.3 120.1 119.5 118.0 115.8 112.9 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 5 9 12 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 7 4 1 3 5 11 16 11 7 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 25. 25. 22. 21. 21. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 10/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 10/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##