* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 65 64 66 64 60 57 52 48 41 38 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 65 64 66 64 60 57 52 48 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 65 65 64 61 55 49 42 38 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 24 31 36 35 43 43 53 36 13 16 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 4 3 10 7 9 4 4 2 4 10 SHEAR DIR 255 243 227 236 240 227 232 204 187 184 201 219 231 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.8 26.0 23.3 21.3 18.1 14.0 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 141 145 138 118 97 86 77 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 121 122 125 131 128 107 87 77 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.0 -53.6 -52.1 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -55.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 45 48 47 46 47 53 46 48 49 48 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 17 16 21 22 23 29 30 28 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -32 -25 -24 -13 33 84 137 167 145 82 37 58 200 MB DIV 12 20 54 66 47 47 25 50 35 47 23 78 86 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 0 -1 -11 -36 -56 -17 -4 -13 -18 -47 LAND (KM) 1036 1122 1208 1308 1411 1660 1666 1397 1171 1037 995 1229 1258 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.6 29.6 31.8 35.0 38.5 41.8 44.7 49.1 54.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.3 59.7 58.7 57.6 55.0 50.9 47.0 44.1 42.0 40.6 36.2 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 16 22 22 20 17 21 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 16 15 16 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -20. -20. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 5. 6. 7. 12. 13. 11. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 4. 0. -3. -8. -12. -19. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)