* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102011 10/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 46 49 50 50 47 46 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 46 49 50 50 47 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 23 23 25 26 19 20 18 17 25 24 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 0 -4 1 0 -1 0 3 -3 0 14 SHEAR DIR 25 30 38 54 47 52 55 72 57 74 122 109 204 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 143 143 144 147 149 149 146 147 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 84 84 81 81 73 69 62 61 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 10 15 23 38 42 40 41 35 56 67 76 200 MB DIV 61 59 71 101 122 143 145 166 144 156 132 114 60 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -1 0 3 7 6 12 14 0 0 10 LAND (KM) 924 940 963 970 980 989 971 911 792 645 498 338 191 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.3 107.1 107.7 108.3 109.2 110.2 110.5 110.0 109.1 108.2 107.0 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 9 8 8 8 10 19 16 5 23 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 17. 16. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##