* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112011 10/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 52 52 50 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 52 52 50 47 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 37 40 43 45 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 12 15 13 12 9 10 6 7 17 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -6 -3 2 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 85 90 89 98 97 92 115 113 169 172 169 172 181 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 145 145 144 143 140 139 135 129 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 75 75 77 76 70 69 60 54 47 43 35 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 38 40 49 36 42 56 86 84 95 109 111 200 MB DIV 88 74 63 63 75 101 135 104 95 66 72 32 33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1422 1438 1457 1472 1492 1546 1531 1543 1545 1503 1409 1314 1221 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 12 12 4 7 8 9 9 7 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 27. 25. 22. 19. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 ELEVEN 10/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 ELEVEN 10/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##