* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 10/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 51 51 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 51 51 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 42 43 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 15 12 12 9 9 8 7 17 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 2 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 100 90 95 98 104 92 115 129 195 172 169 178 181 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 145 145 145 144 143 140 139 135 128 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 75 73 77 75 70 69 57 54 47 42 34 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 38 38 40 49 37 42 58 88 85 96 110 111 200 MB DIV 88 73 63 63 75 102 135 104 94 64 71 32 32 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1413 1428 1447 1463 1483 1537 1522 1535 1536 1494 1400 1306 1213 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 13 13 5 7 8 9 9 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 26. 23. 21. 18. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 10/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 10/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##