* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 67 68 65 63 58 50 44 41 35 30 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 67 68 65 63 58 50 44 41 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 70 69 66 60 53 44 38 36 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 26 38 40 33 40 40 52 55 24 7 14 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 4 10 9 19 10 0 -1 -2 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 249 233 239 243 239 228 221 208 191 167 149 219 221 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.4 25.2 22.7 21.2 20.8 16.8 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 142 142 142 133 111 92 82 82 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 121 125 127 129 121 100 82 72 73 72 70 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 44 49 48 49 52 51 48 49 45 42 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 18 16 19 20 22 28 28 26 26 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -19 -14 -8 12 57 113 158 157 146 123 62 137 200 MB DIV 17 48 47 45 32 36 48 42 64 55 33 41 60 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 -1 0 -18 -32 2 19 -9 -2 -12 -94 LAND (KM) 1142 1218 1294 1410 1529 1778 1590 1279 1063 984 965 973 1280 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.4 32.6 36.3 39.8 42.0 42.4 46.1 52.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 59.9 59.3 58.1 56.8 53.5 49.9 46.5 44.0 42.6 42.5 40.2 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 12 14 17 21 21 16 7 11 27 33 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 15 15 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -24. -21. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 9. 8. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 2. 3. 0. -2. -6. -15. -21. -24. -30. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)