* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102011 10/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 57 66 71 73 65 57 46 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 57 66 71 73 65 57 46 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 41 43 44 43 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 8 11 5 7 7 8 9 17 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 4 1 0 5 5 0 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 32 48 30 8 19 331 336 344 22 224 223 165 200 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 149 150 147 143 143 146 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -51.7 -52.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 82 81 77 73 71 68 66 66 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 18 20 21 23 20 17 10 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 18 26 25 34 46 55 56 60 65 70 73 200 MB DIV 66 72 97 125 144 172 142 141 186 129 120 111 39 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -10 -11 -10 -3 -4 0 2 4 -4 -23 -5 LAND (KM) 839 833 830 825 823 767 683 623 538 384 164 58 40 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.9 15.1 15.8 16.3 17.2 18.6 19.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.0 107.5 108.1 108.6 109.4 109.6 109.5 108.9 107.8 106.3 105.5 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 8 8 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 15 17 17 28 11 6 7 39 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 10. 13. 16. 18. 14. 11. 1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 27. 36. 41. 43. 35. 27. 16. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##