* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 45 47 51 52 51 48 45 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 45 47 51 52 51 48 45 43 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 46 48 51 52 52 51 50 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 8 7 13 19 18 16 16 13 17 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -2 -5 0 0 2 7 SHEAR DIR 85 96 101 108 151 177 189 177 166 175 168 166 126 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 146 144 141 139 137 135 132 127 130 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -51.8 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 76 73 67 58 51 43 34 28 24 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 35 42 33 44 61 114 112 73 62 56 54 200 MB DIV 69 55 68 110 100 127 123 117 80 59 30 22 32 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -5 -4 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1369 1366 1365 1346 1333 1336 1320 1286 1259 1195 1094 943 724 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.1 117.5 118.1 118.6 119.4 119.6 119.5 119.5 119.2 118.6 116.8 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 7 3 2 2 2 4 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 19 17 28 29 25 18 6 3 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 12. 16. 17. 16. 13. 10. 8. 5. 4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##