* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 78 76 72 68 63 56 48 41 35 29 V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 78 76 72 68 63 56 48 41 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 80 78 72 64 54 46 42 42 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 38 36 37 47 45 55 28 6 12 24 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 10 12 1 10 2 0 -1 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 223 225 236 233 220 223 202 187 168 231 254 224 206 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.0 23.6 21.9 18.8 16.7 13.5 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 143 143 136 117 97 88 78 73 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 124 127 129 124 105 86 78 71 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.0 -52.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 47 47 49 52 49 41 45 47 53 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 18 17 20 20 20 24 30 32 24 19 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -7 18 36 75 131 145 144 131 92 168 241 200 MB DIV 60 52 42 37 20 41 69 34 42 52 35 50 35 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -6 -16 -40 -42 -35 -16 12 -5 -20 9 LAND (KM) 1274 1375 1478 1608 1737 1610 1384 1149 938 880 1007 1118 1276 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.9 30.4 32.3 35.1 38.2 41.2 44.0 46.5 49.8 53.6 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 58.5 57.5 56.2 54.8 51.0 47.1 45.1 44.2 42.5 39.6 37.7 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 16 20 19 16 15 16 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 13 11 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -26. -27. -22. -19. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 14. 15. 8. 4. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -27. -34. -40. -46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/06/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)