* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102011 10/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 48 57 64 69 72 61 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 48 57 64 69 72 61 48 48 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 51 53 55 55 55 56 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 8 6 6 4 5 8 8 15 9 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 4 3 0 -4 1 5 5 6 0 2 SHEAR DIR 33 26 43 31 31 323 338 322 258 244 287 303 281 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 150 146 142 142 146 151 153 161 166 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 78 80 75 74 69 71 66 68 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 16 17 19 20 14 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 10 12 23 44 52 68 96 99 78 74 66 200 MB DIV 62 83 96 100 116 132 125 148 182 135 129 80 44 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -10 -7 -5 -4 -1 8 7 0 -1 10 7 LAND (KM) 785 775 769 748 730 699 620 489 352 239 172 22 -124 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.2 19.3 19.9 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.6 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.9 109.7 109.1 108.4 107.6 106.9 105.6 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 8 7 5 5 7 6 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 18 18 27 10 5 25 35 40 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 29. 34. 37. 26. 13. 13. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 TEN 10/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##