* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 80 77 74 69 64 56 49 38 30 27 26 V (KT) LAND 80 82 80 77 74 69 64 56 49 38 30 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 84 82 79 72 61 50 44 42 42 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 37 36 42 42 41 47 48 17 11 3 27 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 14 9 7 16 13 3 0 3 1 14 10 SHEAR DIR 223 237 224 230 234 238 203 193 148 68 280 217 220 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 26.9 24.3 22.7 22.0 19.5 16.4 12.1 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 142 127 103 90 86 80 75 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 125 129 117 92 78 75 73 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -53.4 -53.3 -51.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 46 46 50 43 43 38 38 37 50 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 18 20 21 23 28 30 30 24 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -14 3 30 53 68 99 147 177 178 122 116 193 234 200 MB DIV 58 41 19 30 34 32 57 30 6 13 62 55 57 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -23 -22 -23 -23 -5 0 -5 8 -3 14 LAND (KM) 1373 1493 1614 1721 1725 1518 1236 1046 928 873 1066 1295 1455 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.5 30.9 33.4 37.2 39.8 41.1 43.4 46.9 51.4 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 57.6 56.4 55.0 53.5 49.0 45.3 44.3 44.5 43.0 38.7 35.4 32.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 18 23 19 10 9 18 24 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 11 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -23. -25. -27. -24. -20. -16. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 10. 10. 4. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -31. -42. -50. -53. -54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 5( 18) 3( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)