* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 60 71 80 86 88 73 61 59 57 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 60 71 80 86 88 73 61 45 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 55 61 67 71 72 73 74 57 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 5 9 2 2 7 8 6 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 8 3 5 8 SHEAR DIR 43 51 57 60 74 8 318 212 99 152 235 280 251 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.5 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 149 148 146 141 141 144 150 159 163 163 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.9 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 78 80 77 74 70 70 66 66 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 15 18 20 22 26 27 17 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 13 18 23 14 76 66 98 97 104 102 107 200 MB DIV 78 90 90 97 117 102 125 131 175 156 114 48 52 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -5 -2 0 -4 1 5 0 -14 -6 2 0 LAND (KM) 786 761 735 720 708 668 564 464 369 244 84 -73 -202 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.8 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.4 109.7 109.6 109.1 108.3 107.3 106.1 104.7 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 17 19 30 20 6 6 22 32 44 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 17. 4. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 31. 40. 46. 48. 33. 21. 19. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##