* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 75 80 88 89 87 80 72 67 59 57 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 75 80 88 89 87 80 72 67 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 75 78 81 81 80 77 72 65 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 15 14 7 13 7 21 24 21 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 2 8 8 8 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 81 80 91 108 103 116 91 104 100 96 105 86 74 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 143 142 141 140 140 141 142 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -51.4 -51.9 -50.7 -51.2 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 71 73 68 62 59 47 47 41 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 17 18 18 16 14 14 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 44 67 79 96 123 141 116 67 91 88 84 200 MB DIV 75 86 78 116 124 132 102 115 120 89 77 7 -5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 4 5 10 12 8 -2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1418 1409 1402 1366 1331 1279 1212 1127 1045 928 787 706 654 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.4 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.9 119.1 119.0 118.8 118.2 117.6 116.6 115.4 114.1 113.0 111.9 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 34 35 20 15 13 17 28 14 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 7. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 25. 33. 34. 32. 25. 17. 12. 4. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##