* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 24 26 28 31 32 31 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 24 26 28 31 32 31 29 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 18 14 14 17 17 17 25 36 47 45 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 3 0 -1 0 0 4 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 39 37 33 27 4 1 357 25 25 51 55 64 62 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 140 141 141 141 141 140 141 141 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 72 69 70 70 70 70 72 72 74 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 0 -1 0 1 -4 -4 -6 -13 0 14 23 200 MB DIV 9 22 24 35 30 19 31 12 65 47 94 90 136 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 7 10 LAND (KM) 469 472 477 489 507 544 556 544 544 511 478 470 374 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 93.0 93.6 94.1 94.6 95.4 95.9 96.2 96.2 96.3 96.0 95.3 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##