* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 75 72 69 66 56 45 40 37 28 22 V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 75 72 69 66 56 45 40 37 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 80 78 75 67 56 47 44 45 48 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 32 31 34 36 54 43 30 14 11 27 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 16 11 14 14 2 0 0 4 7 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 231 231 214 223 227 225 190 179 160 304 232 214 231 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 25.7 23.2 21.9 20.5 17.2 13.3 10.6 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 141 136 115 95 87 82 76 72 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 129 125 103 84 76 73 71 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 46 51 49 49 44 44 38 43 59 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 20 21 22 32 38 32 26 22 21 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 27 48 67 90 161 168 184 156 128 149 182 119 200 MB DIV 42 40 22 44 41 69 37 50 21 38 71 49 69 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -16 -10 -11 -9 -31 -7 -8 15 -11 -8 37 LAND (KM) 1502 1628 1757 1728 1648 1365 1137 1020 982 1022 1270 1393 1239 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.3 31.2 32.0 35.4 38.7 41.1 42.7 45.7 50.1 55.2 60.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 55.8 54.4 52.5 50.5 46.7 44.4 43.0 42.0 39.7 35.6 31.5 27.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 19 21 21 16 11 13 22 27 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 11 4 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -30. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -25. -23. -20. -15. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 7. 13. 9. 3. -1. -2. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -24. -35. -40. -43. -52. -58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 3( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)