* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 60 65 72 76 77 63 50 47 44 42 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 60 65 72 76 77 63 50 47 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 57 60 64 66 65 63 62 64 55 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 5 9 13 12 14 3 4 16 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 0 3 0 2 5 8 0 7 8 SHEAR DIR 51 52 43 52 26 349 3 355 22 356 270 272 253 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.9 29.9 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 147 146 142 139 141 145 152 163 166 165 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 78 79 76 73 69 65 65 59 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 18 18 20 22 23 13 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 15 30 38 43 60 88 90 100 100 113 95 107 200 MB DIV 98 98 88 101 129 166 151 157 186 114 83 35 29 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -4 0 -4 2 5 5 -5 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 833 825 823 803 786 724 614 489 343 191 43 -15 -126 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.3 21.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.8 110.3 110.5 110.7 110.7 110.1 109.1 108.0 106.9 106.1 105.1 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 12 18 13 6 5 23 37 49 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. -3. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 27. 31. 32. 18. 5. 2. -1. -3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##