* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 79 83 89 88 89 81 73 66 61 60 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 79 83 89 88 89 81 73 66 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 76 78 80 80 79 78 76 72 68 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 14 11 11 10 15 26 24 23 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -2 0 0 5 3 2 -1 -4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 92 79 103 111 110 80 81 86 92 85 74 71 72 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 143 142 142 141 141 141 142 143 141 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 70 66 60 55 52 49 43 38 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 14 16 19 18 21 20 18 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 50 61 73 82 90 90 84 83 93 90 105 200 MB DIV 95 81 93 116 123 135 111 87 91 80 66 28 41 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 7 1 0 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1447 1438 1430 1418 1403 1372 1329 1255 1151 1003 824 728 643 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.7 119.8 119.9 119.9 119.7 119.1 118.1 116.7 115.0 112.9 111.5 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 12 13 14 13 21 19 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 383 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 9. 14. 12. 10. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 18. 24. 23. 24. 16. 8. 1. -4. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##