* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 71 68 64 59 53 45 40 34 25 16 V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 71 68 64 59 53 45 40 34 25 16 V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 77 74 70 60 49 44 45 48 51 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 40 44 51 49 53 19 15 10 15 33 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 8 8 18 3 0 -4 -4 0 10 5 9 SHEAR DIR 223 228 234 237 228 200 182 195 213 237 210 220 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.8 24.1 21.2 19.5 18.1 14.9 9.9 9.2 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 137 126 102 85 79 76 73 70 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 129 127 115 91 75 72 71 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -53.7 -52.8 -51.0 -52.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 53 52 47 40 40 36 33 54 61 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 21 24 32 33 29 24 21 18 13 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 48 62 76 105 137 177 177 127 129 180 124 105 200 MB DIV 34 13 9 19 57 37 9 13 26 72 38 60 27 700-850 TADV -11 -21 -23 -29 -26 -22 -6 -1 -3 0 13 16 72 LAND (KM) 1600 1713 1670 1568 1462 1098 795 803 1046 1162 1273 1527 1340 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.7 33.9 38.1 41.4 43.4 44.7 48.2 53.9 58.9 62.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 54.9 53.6 51.4 49.1 46.5 46.4 44.0 39.9 37.2 36.6 33.5 28.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 18 23 22 20 14 14 17 24 27 25 23 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 11 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -21. -27. -33. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -19. -27. -27. -23. -19. -15. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 13. 10. 5. 2. 0. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -27. -35. -39. -46. -55. -64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)