* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 69 79 80 81 67 51 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 69 79 80 81 67 51 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 60 62 64 65 65 64 64 46 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 10 5 7 9 12 8 12 4 25 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 5 12 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 54 53 33 11 18 21 11 9 84 326 298 270 254 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.4 30.2 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 146 142 141 143 148 158 167 169 168 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 10 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 80 77 78 75 70 71 64 60 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 19 18 16 22 22 24 16 6 5 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 21 23 31 47 60 74 99 124 116 127 107 200 MB DIV 99 98 122 139 136 134 122 142 165 110 33 37 12 700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 -2 -1 0 8 0 -16 10 12 4 0 LAND (KM) 858 842 830 795 762 659 551 420 259 79 -63 -198 -325 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.4 21.0 22.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.4 110.6 110.6 110.5 110.1 109.3 108.3 107.1 105.9 104.6 103.7 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 15 27 11 6 6 28 42 11 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 7. 8. 12. 0. -13. -15. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 19. 29. 30. 31. 17. 1. -6. -8. -10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##