* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 87 91 92 89 86 78 69 67 61 57 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 87 91 92 89 86 78 69 67 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 75 82 85 86 86 84 81 78 73 67 63 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 13 11 16 13 21 20 22 26 29 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -1 0 -1 0 2 5 7 2 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 85 100 90 96 83 85 74 89 92 83 68 52 71 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 142 142 143 143 142 142 143 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -51.4 -52.4 -51.1 -51.4 -50.4 -51.0 -50.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 72 69 65 60 58 53 47 45 43 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 17 19 20 20 22 20 17 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 53 68 72 70 92 79 70 69 74 78 95 200 MB DIV 100 113 124 134 146 150 104 98 72 87 34 49 20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 7 7 9 6 0 2 2 8 LAND (KM) 1476 1467 1457 1447 1436 1398 1323 1205 1071 952 867 722 561 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.4 120.5 120.4 120.3 119.7 118.8 117.5 116.0 114.2 112.3 110.6 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 1 1 2 3 5 7 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 9 10 14 17 13 29 15 8 16 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 13. 10. 6. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 17. 14. 11. 3. -6. -8. -14. -18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##