* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 50 47 46 48 46 39 34 35 33 32 30 V (KT) LAND 60 54 50 47 46 48 46 39 34 35 33 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 49 46 43 39 36 34 35 39 44 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 43 48 47 45 53 39 25 17 16 28 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 13 13 -10 -4 0 0 6 8 7 9 SHEAR DIR 232 239 244 237 218 183 187 199 204 232 226 223 234 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.1 23.5 20.5 17.1 14.5 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 139 129 118 99 84 75 71 70 69 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 127 118 107 89 77 70 68 68 67 64 64 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 48 49 46 46 48 45 55 63 60 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 22 24 26 34 31 26 21 20 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 60 79 102 129 158 175 103 99 143 179 171 167 200 MB DIV 23 16 22 38 59 54 68 63 62 82 62 70 72 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -14 -24 -23 -48 -30 -25 -33 25 83 14 -30 LAND (KM) 1678 1734 1651 1507 1384 1121 947 1034 1242 1499 1245 1099 822 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.9 31.9 33.4 34.9 38.5 42.7 45.8 48.5 52.2 57.0 59.8 59.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 53.3 51.4 49.6 47.8 45.1 42.5 39.5 36.1 32.6 29.0 24.6 19.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 20 21 21 22 21 18 20 24 22 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 9. 5. 0. -1. -4. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -14. -12. -14. -21. -26. -25. -27. -28. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)