* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 67 69 81 83 81 70 54 45 41 41 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 67 69 81 83 81 70 54 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 64 65 65 65 64 64 66 42 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 10 6 5 3 4 7 3 15 6 25 34 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 6 -2 2 2 -1 -4 1 4 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 52 23 342 19 45 11 310 48 109 266 272 256 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.3 29.0 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 143 141 141 142 146 154 162 168 169 168 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -50.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 79 78 72 67 61 59 58 55 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 18 16 24 25 23 17 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 1 8 15 26 22 51 60 79 70 59 16 200 MB DIV 100 96 125 123 125 98 106 104 140 68 47 23 -13 700-850 TADV -6 0 -6 1 0 6 0 -4 -21 -2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 806 776 748 721 691 592 457 319 182 10 -93 -242 -377 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.4 109.7 108.8 107.8 106.8 105.6 104.4 103.4 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 21 26 22 13 7 6 25 37 9 8 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 9. 11. 10. 1. -12. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 26. 28. 26. 15. -1. -10. -14. -14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##