* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 89 91 93 93 91 84 77 70 64 67 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 89 91 93 93 91 84 77 70 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 86 86 86 83 81 80 78 74 71 68 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 12 8 8 8 13 20 13 22 20 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 0 -1 0 1 7 5 0 2 2 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 105 87 85 101 79 100 78 103 92 71 52 55 69 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 142 141 142 142 142 143 144 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 67 64 62 59 56 55 47 45 50 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 21 21 20 18 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 68 70 76 77 78 75 58 62 69 82 77 200 MB DIV 118 118 135 135 118 124 93 60 66 69 41 83 71 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 4 6 3 2 0 -2 1 5 LAND (KM) 1497 1482 1467 1444 1421 1390 1329 1233 1102 962 837 644 461 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 120.8 120.8 120.7 120.5 120.0 119.1 117.9 116.2 114.2 112.0 110.0 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 9 12 14 13 26 14 8 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 4. -3. -10. -16. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##