* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 49 50 49 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 49 50 49 51 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 33 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 13 14 19 22 25 29 28 20 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 5 4 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 21 10 27 24 25 29 40 49 48 60 60 65 78 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 142 142 141 143 144 145 147 149 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 72 71 74 74 77 76 78 75 79 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 3 7 7 -5 -14 -6 16 49 59 57 54 200 MB DIV 15 28 14 12 22 57 36 61 83 101 128 123 132 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 490 518 512 511 512 518 508 465 395 345 339 305 203 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.2 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.2 96.5 97.0 97.1 97.1 96.9 96.4 95.6 95.0 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 15 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 24. 26. 25. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##