* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 51 52 53 47 39 33 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 51 52 53 47 39 33 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 52 49 46 40 36 34 34 36 39 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 44 46 47 54 41 37 25 25 34 54 62 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 11 15 8 4 -4 0 5 7 2 11 0 SHEAR DIR 234 246 231 213 201 182 193 187 225 221 240 256 267 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.1 24.6 22.1 18.5 15.4 12.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 131 120 107 91 78 72 70 69 68 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 121 110 97 83 73 68 67 67 66 64 65 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.0 -53.3 -54.9 -56.0 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 49 48 48 44 45 50 47 48 47 53 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 21 23 30 33 29 23 21 15 12 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 84 101 124 136 164 115 66 120 133 33 46 65 200 MB DIV 22 48 49 56 61 27 51 68 68 46 47 20 50 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -39 -27 -15 -52 -44 -49 23 53 91 210 180 LAND (KM) 1791 1690 1578 1397 1245 1082 1148 1245 1369 1398 1268 1051 676 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.6 32.8 34.9 36.9 40.6 44.0 47.4 51.2 55.4 60.0 62.5 61.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 51.4 49.3 47.6 45.8 42.6 38.9 36.2 34.3 31.6 27.7 22.5 15.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 23 25 24 22 21 20 21 24 21 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -20. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 7. 3. 0. -5. -8. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. -13. -21. -27. -34. -40. -54. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)