* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 60 64 69 75 76 66 52 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 60 64 69 75 76 66 44 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 53 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 3 4 8 2 2 11 26 12 13 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -5 -2 -4 0 -3 -8 -5 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 51 23 38 88 96 158 60 116 116 203 253 247 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 142 141 142 144 149 155 162 166 167 167 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.1 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 9 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 75 74 69 66 60 59 58 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 17 20 22 24 24 18 9 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -11 -6 -7 0 3 35 48 74 74 66 30 10 200 MB DIV 88 111 106 114 98 118 140 150 126 49 54 12 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -6 2 1 5 1 2 -8 -18 -9 8 0 -2 LAND (KM) 755 727 698 648 599 464 360 237 94 -58 -124 -219 -297 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.5 110.4 110.1 109.7 108.5 107.5 106.6 105.7 104.8 104.0 103.4 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 16 10 7 4 8 31 39 51 9 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 3. 5. 9. 9. 1. -11. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 21. 11. -3. -12. -14. -15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##