* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 84 85 85 84 75 72 63 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 84 85 85 84 75 72 63 62 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 80 79 78 76 76 75 72 69 66 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 9 9 15 10 17 21 17 17 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -1 4 0 0 3 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 81 90 96 78 74 88 87 102 99 63 63 107 118 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 141 141 142 140 140 141 145 144 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 59 58 59 58 54 50 49 48 48 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 20 21 21 21 18 20 17 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 47 57 54 54 71 73 88 67 60 65 88 88 71 200 MB DIV 116 117 99 88 96 82 104 42 44 73 65 82 108 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 5 6 0 1 0 1 3 7 4 LAND (KM) 1513 1497 1482 1459 1436 1369 1267 1185 1108 977 800 607 461 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.1 14.9 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.2 121.3 121.2 121.0 120.1 118.9 117.7 116.3 114.3 111.8 109.8 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 5 6 6 8 11 12 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 10 12 10 10 23 14 8 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. 4. 0. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -5. -8. -17. -18. -20. -21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##