* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 42 43 46 47 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 42 43 46 35 30 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 32 33 28 27 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 12 13 18 23 28 21 5 14 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 2 5 11 6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 16 20 26 27 27 19 15 23 243 237 244 239 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.4 28.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 143 143 143 146 152 158 159 153 156 159 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 6 5 7 6 8 5 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 69 74 75 76 76 77 75 74 70 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -3 9 9 7 4 -8 17 98 83 76 73 69 31 200 MB DIV 28 16 -1 37 69 50 96 105 137 82 58 19 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 5 5 0 LAND (KM) 505 495 489 487 487 463 405 277 89 -145 -48 56 70 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.5 15.2 17.2 19.0 20.7 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.1 97.6 98.0 98.2 98.1 97.2 96.5 96.4 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 8 9 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 7 30 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 4. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 21. 22. 20. 21. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING