* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 50 51 46 39 37 32 26 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 50 51 46 39 37 32 26 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 44 41 39 35 33 33 34 37 40 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 43 48 56 55 36 30 25 28 37 47 57 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 14 11 7 -6 -2 2 2 5 6 13 13 15 SHEAR DIR 247 234 219 208 189 180 191 201 228 222 228 239 237 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.5 25.2 23.6 21.9 18.3 15.0 12.1 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 132 123 111 99 89 78 73 69 68 66 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 113 102 89 80 72 69 67 66 64 63 64 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -56.3 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 45 50 46 50 47 46 44 62 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 25 31 33 31 26 21 21 17 14 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 71 91 116 140 141 156 104 82 90 118 104 143 235 200 MB DIV 48 44 59 64 50 76 94 57 71 65 76 58 85 700-850 TADV -14 -18 -14 -14 -44 -52 -35 -26 2 70 99 109 171 LAND (KM) 1772 1620 1491 1328 1197 1105 1148 1291 1501 1284 1231 1104 823 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 32.4 34.0 36.1 38.1 41.0 44.2 47.9 52.1 55.8 59.0 61.0 60.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 49.4 47.4 45.9 44.3 41.8 38.8 35.5 32.3 29.8 27.8 24.3 19.5 STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 23 24 21 18 21 22 22 18 15 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 4. -1. 0. -4. -8. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. -4. -11. -13. -18. -24. -34. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)