* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 34 33 33 35 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 10 14 18 24 24 21 5 4 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 1 1 8 7 1 -7 SHEAR DIR 360 30 36 30 25 28 23 13 9 338 212 210 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 142 143 145 150 156 157 154 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 5 5 4 6 7 7 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 71 74 75 79 78 78 77 78 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 10 5 9 -8 18 77 92 69 66 50 55 200 MB DIV 33 13 41 73 67 83 82 102 101 63 45 48 39 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 2 0 -2 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 501 503 507 510 514 470 395 253 96 -74 -148 -57 -54 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.6 15.0 16.5 17.8 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.8 97.0 97.2 97.4 97.4 97.5 97.5 97.3 96.9 96.7 96.6 97.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 1 3 5 7 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 33 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 9. 8. 8. 10. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##