* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 52 51 44 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 52 51 44 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 44 42 39 35 33 33 34 34 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 49 56 58 44 34 29 36 46 64 64 57 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 11 -2 2 -1 5 8 8 2 3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 224 215 193 186 189 202 230 242 245 248 261 256 SST (C) 27.2 26.4 25.3 23.7 22.5 20.0 16.4 13.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 11.9 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 122 112 100 93 82 74 72 69 67 67 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 111 102 91 84 75 70 69 67 65 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -54.3 -56.1 -57.5 -58.6 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 50 52 48 45 45 39 35 48 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 24 29 29 30 27 21 20 16 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 117 138 138 151 127 97 98 99 28 34 6 11 200 MB DIV 52 53 49 48 21 75 76 79 49 40 60 62 71 700-850 TADV -15 -8 -8 -43 -47 -35 -28 38 53 71 146 183 143 LAND (KM) 1627 1482 1359 1225 1130 1128 1169 1407 1214 973 803 543 232 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 34.1 35.8 37.9 39.9 42.8 46.3 50.5 55.1 57.9 58.8 59.8 59.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 47.4 45.7 44.2 42.7 39.9 37.5 33.7 28.7 23.9 19.6 14.4 8.9 STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 23 24 21 19 22 26 23 15 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 25 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 0. -2. -5. -11. -13. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -6. -14. -23. -34. -42. -52. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)