* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 69 74 83 79 67 53 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 69 74 83 79 67 46 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 63 64 52 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 6 6 5 16 19 16 1 17 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -9 -2 -3 -3 -3 2 -1 -1 0 5 5 SHEAR DIR 58 75 95 111 59 91 129 95 128 269 266 259 277 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.8 30.5 30.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 144 144 146 148 150 155 163 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -49.9 -50.4 -50.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 73 75 73 67 71 73 64 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 18 18 19 19 25 23 16 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -22 -7 -4 8 37 65 77 114 91 52 12 200 MB DIV 64 82 108 86 100 121 132 136 91 82 20 10 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 5 5 2 0 -6 -11 -4 0 -7 3 LAND (KM) 713 667 620 569 521 425 354 245 112 -52 -77 -178 -312 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.2 18.2 20.0 22.2 24.1 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.1 109.7 109.1 108.5 107.4 106.5 105.7 105.0 104.8 104.9 104.9 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 9 8 6 7 28 32 35 50 74 13 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 14. 11. 2. -10. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 28. 24. 12. -2. -8. -9. -10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##