* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 40 42 46 43 43 48 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 40 42 35 30 28 35 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 27 27 27 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 15 15 19 24 18 6 6 13 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 1 -3 1 6 13 7 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 30 38 26 34 36 19 12 5 344 279 221 234 262 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 142 143 145 149 156 160 157 157 159 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 7 6 8 6 10 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 74 73 73 76 79 79 77 75 73 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 9 14 2 28 95 92 72 53 54 0 9 200 MB DIV 26 40 78 81 56 87 96 147 108 78 34 41 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 -2 3 -2 3 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 496 499 503 494 485 408 290 114 -74 -149 -23 39 38 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.2 13.3 14.9 16.6 18.5 20.4 21.9 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.2 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.5 97.3 97.1 97.0 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 3 5 6 9 9 10 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 3 5 7 30 50 0 4 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 21. 18. 18. 23. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##