* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 46 44 40 37 32 24 21 27 20 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 46 44 40 37 32 24 21 27 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 36 34 33 33 35 38 40 42 DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 51 45 40 36 29 28 29 40 46 60 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 0 5 -1 7 6 0 -1 5 2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 220 215 191 177 174 192 212 231 242 246 243 265 N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.1 23.9 22.8 21.8 18.0 14.6 12.4 11.7 11.9 11.8 11.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 110 101 94 89 78 72 70 69 68 67 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 99 91 85 81 72 69 67 66 65 65 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -54.6 -56.6 -58.3 -59.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 52 52 47 49 54 57 53 55 59 66 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 27 27 29 29 24 21 21 18 11 12 25 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 138 144 144 127 85 64 112 97 60 56 59 N/A 200 MB DIV 73 49 52 28 78 98 103 75 68 61 62 62 N/A 700-850 TADV -22 -4 -32 -53 -50 -63 -38 29 72 110 18 55 N/A LAND (KM) 1477 1368 1288 1226 1198 1231 1381 1354 1020 813 598 384 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 36.0 37.6 39.3 41.0 44.5 48.6 52.4 55.8 58.3 60.0 61.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.8 45.1 43.4 41.9 40.4 37.5 34.2 30.2 25.6 20.5 15.3 9.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 21 21 21 21 22 23 22 20 17 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 23 CX,CY: 19/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -2. -6. -12. -11. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -21. -24. -18. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/08/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)